Will Iran witness a civil war?

 “No nation has friends only interests.”

 USA and Iran like any other nation has no friends but only interests. To simplify the US’s interest is to create a vacuum of power in the middle east by toppling the Iranian government for various reasons extending from usurping its natural resources to create a demand of arms in the region which USA will cater to. The role of arms sales in the USA’s foreign policy is arcane. Iran’s interest, on the other hand, is to establish a Shia hegemony in the heart of the middle east. Quds force or ‘Jerusalem’ force (English translation of the Farsi word Quds)  is a part of Iran’s revolutionary guard sharing the same goal.

 

General Soleimani of the Quds force, who was a De-Facto Foreign minister reporting directly to Ali Khamenei (the Supreme Leader of Iran) has been assassinated on 3^rd January at Baghdad Airport. This demands a foresighted view of US-Iran relations. They have had a tumultuous relationship since the time of the Iranian revolution to the latest assassination of General Soleimani. The time in between is filled with a compendium  of events like the Fall of the Shah, US Embassy hostage crisis(1979-1981), the US shooting down an Iranian passenger’s plane killing 290(1988), Iran developing Nuclear facilities(the 2000s), Iran Nuclear Deal(2013-2016, a period of temporary peace) the USA pulling out of the deal which escalated tension in the gulf(2019), and last but not least the  assassination of General Soleimani(2020)

There has been a pattern observed in President Trump’s decisions over the last few years with matters related to Iran. Firstly, in 2018 in the month of May, USA decided to pull out of the “Iran Nuclear deal”, then in the same year he introduced a travel ban on predominantly Muslim countries, Iran is one of them. In 2019, USA declares Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as a foreign terrorist organization. As our Home Minister says “chronology” is a very important thing to be understood. There is a deliberate attempt from the US to antagonize Iran. Iran has also retaliated in several forms like shooting down a US Military drone in the strait of Hormuz and running a counter-pressure campaign.

 

After the Islamic revolution in Iran, the separation among the clergy, the state and the military has become blurry. However, in the current ongoing political turmoil, an attempt to create a bifurcation amongst the three is a legitimate demand. The media in Iran is extremely controlled. Post assassination of General Soleimani, the Iranian media along with the Western media has painted a picture where Iranian masses are unanimously mourning the death of Soleimani. However, there is an element of propaganda in this narrative. The media is trying to sell the homogeneity of voices but in reality,   people of Iran are polarized. On one hand, there is a considerable section that loathes the clergy and has burnt effigies of their Supreme Leader. It has been highlighted by heretics that the regime has not given adequate support to the flooded areas of Sistan and Baluchistan in South East of Iran where agriculture has suffered a loss of about $100 million and 40% of the houses destroyed, while Khamenei has spent about $220 million dollars for Soleimani’s funeral whom some of the Iranian voices consider a war criminal. This sentiment is counterbalanced by people who believe that Soleimani’s existence was sanctified.  They viewed him as the protector of the shrine of Sayeda Zainab and a martyr who stood up to the western powers and supported the Palestinian resistance. They are filled with more sorrow than anger. On one hand, there is a group of Royalists who support the trinity of state, clergy and military, on the other hand, there are people who want economic progress, more democracy, and good governance which the current establishment is devoiding them off.

 

The abyss that exists between the various voices in Iran may be utilized by the US to topple the government in Iran. The vacuum of power created may be filled with militias and rebel groups and a huge need of arms which will be catered to by the US and its allies. We may witness another Syria like situation with a hike in oil prices leading to a global crisis. Iran is falling into the trap set by the US and its allies. The establishment must pay attention to the heresy rather than blindly tagging them as non- believers. It’s a matter of priority for them. Is a state’s pride so important that it’s worth putting the lives and jobs of a multitude at stake? That is something that the Iranian leadership must decide now , before it is too late.

 

 

Sources-

1. https://ctc.usma.edu/hezbollahs-procurement-channels-leveraging-criminal-networks-partnering-iran/

2.https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hezbollah

3.https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/10/the-origins-of-hezbollah/280809/

4.https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2020/01/03/in-2012-soleimani-was-accused-of-bringing-iran-israel-proxy-war-to-delhi.html

5.https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-the-proxy-war-between-iran-israel-started-25879

6.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/world/middleeast/suleimani-dead.html

7.Don’t believe Iranian propaganda about the mourning for Soleimani-https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/06/dont-believe-iranian-propaganda-about-mourning-soleimani/

8.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24316661

9.https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/risky-business-role-arms-sales-us-foreign-policy